- The world economy will expand 6% this year, while India will grow 12.5%, up from the 11.5% prediction in January 2021
- About 95 million people are estimated to have fallen into extreme poverty in 2020, while undernourished people have grown by 80 million
- Many advanced economies will not return to their pre-pandemic output levels until 2022
- In advanced economies, pent-up demand will drive growth based on savings from 2020, as vulnerable people get vaccinated and contact-intensive industries resume
- Advanced economies will expand 5.1% this year, compared with the 4.3% previously seen
- Emerging-market and developing economies may take until 2023 to recover
- Emerging market and developing economies will grow 6.7%, up from 6.3%
- The world economy in 2024 will be about 3% smaller than anticipated before the Covid-19 outbreak
- The response to last year’s crisis by policymakers prevented a collapse that would have been at least three times worse, and the medium-term losses for the global economy are expected to be smaller than the global financial crisis of 2008
- The divergent recovery paths are likely to widen the global gap in living standards
- The fund estimated per-capita income losses over the 2020-22 period in emerging and developing markets excluding China at the equivalent of 20% of the per-capita GDP figures for 2019. That’s much worse than the 11% the IMF sees in advanced economies
- Globally, economies dependent on tourism face a particularly difficult recovery outlook given the slow pace of normalization of cross-border travel expected
- Global trade volume is expected to accelerate 8.4% this year on a rebound in goods purchases, up from the 8.1% gain seen in January
- The US is seen at 6.4%, up from 5.1% in January. The IMF previously calculated stimulus enacted in March will boost U.S. output by a cumulative 5% to 6% over three years
- The euro area will expand 4.4%, up from the 4.2% previously seen
- Japan will grow 3.3%, compared with 3.1%
- China is seen expanding 8.4%, up from 8.1%
- The UK will grow 5.3%
Inflation data globally could turn volatile in the coming months, given record-low commodity prices a year ago, but the trend should prove short-lived, the IMF said. The muted outlook reflects a weak labor market, high unemployment, and little worker bargaining power.
This global economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the second in the last three months. The last report was published in January 2021 and this report is the updated one.
Source: Bloomberg
